SPI 0.91 and CPI 0.93 are both below plan, and live risk exposure ($95M) dwarfs remaining contingency ($28M) by more than three to one - the register, not the budget line, is where this project's trouble sits. With active descoping and staged-build decisions still open, the EAC ($2,010M) already runs above budget ($1,880M) and the P50 finish has slipped a full year past baseline. It is on Watch rather than At risk because SPI and CPI still sit above the 0.90 triggers: the buffer, not performance, is what has gone. The descope levers to recover it are still in the client's hands.